This problem is compounded by the deep relationship that Trump has cultivated with Republican voters. Read: The GOP’s “abusive relationship” with Trump By defending him then, they have made it impossible to credibly accuse him of anything now. They thought that by covering for Trump they were tapping into his power, but they were actually giving away their own-mortgaging themselves and their reputations to Trump’s lies and depravities. For eight years, Republican leaders have defended Trump at every turn-from the Access Hollywood tape to “ very fine people on both sides.” From the first impeachment to January 6 to the second impeachment. Case in point: After Trump was indicted, DeSantis called the move “ un-American,” Pence called it “ an outrage,” and Haley said it was “ more about revenge than it is about justice.” One of the peculiar pathologies of Republican-primary politics is that even Trump’s competition feels unable to criticize him. In the most recent group, five out of seven participants said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held that day. “Every one of us is going to buy one of those shirts.” Most hands went up when I asked who would buy one. “As far as a mug shot goes, he’s going to market the hell out of that,” said Chris, a two-time Trump voter from Illinois, imagining a future arrest. None said another indictment or arrest would change their minds. Only three out of nine had, but after the indictment, all nine said they would. We asked one group whether they had donated to Trump before the indictment. When I convened a group of GOP voters the day after Trump’s indictment, their assessment was nearly unanimous: “It’s a complete distraction and it’s a waste of time.” “It’s being blown out of proportion.” “Just ridiculous and a terrible direction for us to go.” “I get the impression that he very much governs to the people on the internet more so than the people in his state.”Ĭolleen, a Republican from Georgia, called DeSantis’s war with Disney “a little goofy,” saying, “It’s Disney World! Leave it alone.” Informed about DeSantis’s suggestion to build a prison next to the theme park, Ruth-a Michigan Republican-exclaimed, “Why would you do that? That’s terrible.”Īs the base sours on DeSantis, it’s coming home to Trump.
“Everything about that is why I’m not necessarily a big fan of him,” said Wesley, a Republican from Maryland. Others called him “alienating” and said they “aren’t necessarily comfortable” with his policies.Ĭriticism of his culture-war crusade against Disney has come up as well.
“As I started to learn more about Ron DeSantis and where he is on the political spectrum and how he’s voted in the past, now I’m not sure I’d vote for the man,” Sharon, a two-time Trump voter from Illinois, told me. These kinds of attacks are aimed at tying DeSantis to the establishment in the eyes of voters-a view that’s starting to creep into the focus groups. Trump and his super PAC are trying to paint DeSantis as a deficit hawk hell-bent on slashing Medicare and Social Security. Others said they liked his approach to the pandemic and approvingly quoted his unofficial campaign slogan: “Florida is where woke goes to die.”įrom the May 2023 issue: How did America’s weirdest, most freedom-obsessed state fall for an authoritarian governor?īut I’ve seen a marked change in recent weeks. In my focus groups, Republican voters admired the Florida governor’s “aggressiveness,” favorably citing his decision to ship migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. So how is Trump on pace to run away with the nomination?įor a while, DeSantis looked like a plausible contender. They like that the former president is, in their words, a “fighter.” But after eight years of Trump tweets, taunts, and tantrums, they’re open to-in many cases eager for-new alternatives. Over the course of hundreds of focus groups I’ve conducted, a large chunk of GOP voters have made clear that they would be content with a nominee other than Trump in 2024-preferably a “Trump without the baggage”–style candidate. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate within hailing distance of Trump, but his campaign is sputtering. Asa Hutchinson, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramaswamy toil in also-ran obscurity. Mike Pence is getting booed by party hard-liners.
Nikki Haley is apparently double-counting her fundraising. Meanwhile, his Republican opposition is floundering. Since the indictment, Republicans-including those running against him-have rallied to Trump’s defense. Despite leading the GOP to a historically bad midterm, being saddled with a dismal 25 percent approval rating, and becoming the first former president to be indicted, his prospects for winning the Republican nomination are only growing stronger. This isn’t news-he has dominated most polling since the day Joe Biden was sworn in. Donald Trump is the clear GOP front-runner for 2024.
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